Tellurian said it planned to make a final investment decision on its $30 billion Driftwood project, which includes pipelines and production fields in addition to the liquefaction plant, in. Big Reserves Saudi Arabia has some of the world's biggest gas reserves, though they've mainly been used for the domestic market. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. All told, the facility would have 20 LNG trains and at least 24.9 million scf (705,000 m3) of storage capacity. Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. The timing of this stock issuance is suspicious, to say the least. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. Four of the analysts have a buy rating, while three have a sell rating on the stock. Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. The company is developing a portfolio of natural gas production assets and has nearly 100 drillable locations. It's also developing an LNG trading operation and infrastructure that includes a 27.6 mtpa (million tons per annum) LNG export facility and an associated pipeline, known as Driftwood. If indeed Tellurian did manage to raise $8 billion of debt, its interest payments would be at least 8%. Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. Some better-ranked players in the energy space are ConocoPhillips COP and Hess Corporation HES, each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). B.Riley initiated on TELL with a buy rating and a target price of $8 in July. |, Related topics: read more, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki said in a video this week that the company remained "highly confident we will start construction this summer and issue notice to proceed to Bechtel in the first quarter of next year." Those assets produced 16.9 Bcf of natural gas last year, up from 13.9 Bcf in 2019. On Nov. 29, the company and former President and CEO Meg. This is of course if Driftwood ends up getting built at all. ISSN 2158-8023 Written by Not at less than $2 per share. Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. Hess earnings for 2021 are expected to rise 116.2% year over year. You have 3 free articles remaining. Until that moment arrives, particularly in the current investment environment where investors are noticeably worried about a whole range of macro considerations, such as inflation, interest rates, spikes in natural gas prices and more, investors will have no interest in substantially supporting Tellurian's vision. Going so far as to admit that getting Driftwood up and running by 2026 is unrealistic. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Tellurian said it intends to market up to 10 million tpy of its 16.6-million tpy Phase 1 on a JKM . | FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. LNG is made by cooling natural gas, which drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier to ship. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. Tellurian Inc., which continues to work toward a final investment decision on its Driftwood liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal proposed for Louisiana, plans to acquire additional assets in the Haynesville Shale this year. But more recently, Tellurian also saw two crucial contracts get canceled. The essence of the video states that Tellurian wants profits. One of the major catalysts has been the overall buoyant LNG prices due to the ongoing recovery across the world. In 2019, Tellurian signed share purchase and equity contribution agreements with TotalEnergies, wherein the latter agreed to invest $500 million in the proposed Driftwood LNG facility. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The LNG market has since tightened and the outlook is improving as the global economy recovers in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak. No gimmicks. $8 billion to come from debt. Tellurian Inc. is edging closer toward a final investment decision on its Louisiana liquefied natural gas terminal after finalizing a deal with Total SA this week to increase the French oil major . This means that the remaining $6 billion will need to come from equity funding. Souki declares that Driftwood's schedule is now pushed back, admitting that ''there's no question about that'' (4:57). Well, there's always hope. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. The bigger question is what LNG prices will be in 2026. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. Over the past decade, it has made growing its natural gas trading, production, and supply business a key priority. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. Finally, even if Driftwood was to be built at some point in the future, investors' prospects will be capped, as Tellurian's equity would need to be diluted approximately 7x. | Download now.]. Tellurian has no signed Final Investment Decision. No gimmicks. Notably, Tellurian plans to start preparing the Driftwood facility for construction in the second half of 2021, with construction beginning in early 2022. You have 3 free articles remaining. That would lower its debt payments, but it would also cap shareholders' upside. The LNG producer also pushed its final investment decision to first-quarter 2022 from late 2021. Copyright 2023 Market Realist. Since then, natural gas prices have been on a wild ride. Tellurian Inc.'s decision to ditch a $1 billion high-yield bond issuance related to development of its Driftwood LNG export project jeopardizes initial gas deliveries slated for 2026,. Outsmart the market with Smart Portfolio analytical tools powered by TipRanks. "The Total agreements were terminated because they are not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood has reached with other counterparties," Tellurian said in a federal filing on Monday. Click here to request a free trial. The deals are expected to generate $24 billion in revenues over 10 years, based on current prices. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. Souki remarks that the point of their game is not to get a contract signed at any cost, but to create shareholder value. (Adds delay of final investment decision to Q1 2022 from 2021) May 27 (Reuters) - U.S . Tellurian has a contract with Bechtel to build the liquefaction plant. The LNG would come from Tellurian's proposed 27.6-MTPA Driftwood export project in Louisiana. Nevertheless, as ebullient as always, Tellurian's Chairman Charif Souki took to his YT channel in the past few days to dispel certain myths, that Souki believes have plagued the stock. Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. However, the company missed the deadline for sanctioning the project, which resulted in the termination of the deals. Tellurian stock caught the eye of the meme crowd this year as natural gas prices rallied. Not only has Tellurian struggled to get its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') going for months. Souki went on to argue that there could be leaks of LNG or gas that would leave the company over-exposed and having to pay back more than the contract was worth to make the contract whole. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. JKM You'll now be able to see real-time price and activity for your symbols on the My Quotes of Nasdaq.com. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood, which the company said it thinks will cost $28.9 billion, for years. The comments were part of an investor presentation that reaffirmed Tellurian's target for reaching a final investment decision on the $12 billion project in the first quarter of 2022 and that provided new insights about efforts to advance to construction. The SPA is for the purchase of LNG free on board at a price based on the Platts Japan Korea Marker. Tellurian Inc . Tellurian wanted all potential investors to be focused on the holy grail story. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Thursday it had signed a 10-year sale and purchase agreement with commodity trader Vitol for 3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. But investors crave FID details. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. Is this happening to you frequently? Presently, Tellurian's market cap is around $1 billion. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? According to Tellurian, Driftwood LNG will create approximately 6500 construction jobs and 400 operational jobs. Its stock has gained 80.3% compared with the industrys 10.8% growth. Looking for a helping hand in the market? This is not a hindsight remark. Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Access unmatched financial data, news and content in a highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. That would put its interest payments at close to $640 million. Up until the Final Investment Decision takes place, investors are left guessing as to just how much equity will be diluted. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. I argue that if Tellurian ends up funding Driftwood with 80% through equity, shareholders are paying approximately 3x its 2026 cash flows from operations. The Hartbeespoort dam in South Africa used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Ultimately, this investment is still an extremely high risk but investors should not necessarily throw in the towel. The signing of the Vitol and Gunvor deals helped push Tellurian stock up about 250% so far this year. In sum, there are three items overhanging Tellurian. Click here to request a trial. Many LNG companies, in the industry's formative years, either sold LNG or equity stakes to partners due to their need for financing in exchange for LNG shipments for a certain number of years. Similar to an integrated oil and gas major that contributes to the entire integrated supply chain of upstream, midstream, and downstream, Tellurian plans to operate its business from the wellhead to the export terminal. Zacks->. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. In June, TELL signed a long-term contract with Vitol for 3 mtpa. Each SPA is for 3 MTPA of LNG over a 10-year period. Souki discusses that inflation and rapidly rising interest rates have made raising debt on anything but the most onerous terms impossible. Access unmatched financial data, news and content in a highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile. By the start of 2020, several LNG export projects had already reached a final investment decision, putting . Nov 30, 2020 Houston-based liquefied natural gas company Tellurian Inc. (Nasdaq: TELL) announced a new president and CEO on Nov. 30. for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back . Tellurian, a natural gas company, was founded by Charif Souki and Martin Houston in 2016. Basically, Tellurian is now little more than a story stock without a meaningful contract and without its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') in place. 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Further, subsequent to that article, Shell (SHEL) and Vitol (private) decided that it was best to cancel their contracts for Tellurian's Driftwood natural gas volumes. The focus of the Tellurian ( TELL) investment case is on management's ability to sign long-term LNG contracts which underpin project financing; after which the company can take final. Tellurian also has its core business! Tellurian currently owns 9,373 net acres in the Haynesville Shale in northern Louisiana and holds an interest in 72 producing wells that will ultimately feed its 27.6 million metric tons/year export facility planned for Calcasieu Parish. Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. In 1978, our founder discovered the power of earnings estimate revisions to enable profitable investment decisions. 2023 ESG Review. LNG I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. It is the second 10-year, 3-MTPA agreement Tellurian has announced in a week, following a deal with commodity trader Gunvor Group. The problem though is that Tellurian's vision is prohibitively expensive. View Subscription Options Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Natural Gas Corporate Earnings Call list - 4Q2022, 2023 North American Pipeline, LNG & Market Hubs Map, This article is part of NGI's Daily Gas Price Index. THANK YOU for all the help that everyone has so kindly offered me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives. Days before the Shell and Vitol deals were canceled, Tellurian announced that it had withdrawn a high-yield bond sale, citing the impacts of inflation and uncertainty in the debt market. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. The partners were to receive LNG from the project. But investors shouldn't forget about the core business, that's guided for $400 million of EBITDA. Tellurian has an amazing story. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. U.S. LNG exporters . Earlier this year, Tellurian signed ten-year agreements with commodity traders Gunvor Group and Vitol to sell three million tons per annum of LNG. It then announced it would seek equity partners. I believe that anyone reading this knows the spiel well. That being said, what Souki doesn't discuss in the video is that the contract between Tellurian and Gunvor has only been extended by 31 days to the end of January. Haynesville Shale We are all working together to compound returns. Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Tellurian sold off 40% in the past month. The one-line takeaway is this, Tellurian is a very high-risk investment. The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. Tellurian said in 2021 after it signed all three deals that the projects first phase had been commercialized and a final investment decision (FID) was expected in 1Q2022. And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. Tellurian is a very volatile stock and not one for the faint-hearted. That those contracts are not what the business model is about. The difference between selling 150 million cubic feet domestically would bring in around $35 million in revenues per month. You can seethe complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Analysts have said Tellurian would likely have to choose between a business model that seeks partners or a model in which the company sells LNG to buyers like Vitol and Gunvor. By the start of 2020, several LNG export. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. This means that investors simply aren't buying into Souki's vision. Is this happening to you frequently? Earnings Recall, this is Tellurian's vision. I provide a hand-holding service. Tellurian, email In the past, Tellurian wanted partners like TotalEnergies to invest in its Driftwood project, which will include a liquefaction plant, pipelines and natural gas production. Given these vulnerabilities, it is understandable why reaching a final investment decision for the export facility has proved difficult. The company ended 2020 with $78.3 million of cash and cash equivalents and $72.8 million in short-term borrowings. Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. Everyone knows the risks. read more. Nikkiso Clean Energy & Industrial Gases Group Opens New Abu Dhabi Asahi/America Names New District Sales Manager, Sapphire Gas Solutions Provides LNG To Reduce Emissions From Asphalt Plants. All rights reserved. The LNG terminal is expected to cost $12 billion. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. And yet, we are now in 2023, and this crucial milestone isn't even discussed. Tellurian needs to raise $12 billion. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to My Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. Infrastructure A wealth of resources for individual investors is available at www.zacks.com. Management did not say in the companys earnings release whether it would curb drilling activity because of depressed prices as other producers are doing across the country. The company also reiterated that it is targeting a final investment decision for its LNG export facility in Texas before the end of the first quarter of 2023. THANK YOU for all the help that everyone has so kindly offered me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. Not signings. One of the major catalysts for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back by the company from 2021 to 2022. THANK YOU for all the help that everyone has so kindly offered me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives. Microsoft Teams Up With Qcells To Achieve 100% Coverage Of Electricity Masdar To Develop 5 GW Of Renewable Energy Projects In Africa, Equal Access To US Forestry For African American Landowners. The problem here is that, aside from. Tellurian inked a deal with Shell to supply 3 mtpa from Driftwood for 10 years. Part of this decline is due to the companys share offering in August. Souki describes the all too familiar narrative, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. It has $474.2 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand. Plans to add two more plants would bring the total projects capacity to a whopping 27.6 MTPA for a total cost of US$30 billion. swan event, that Driftwood one day actually gets built. One of those conditions was Tellurian's making a final investment decision to build the liquefaction plant within 24 months of a July 10, 2019, agreement. More specially, Souki notes that nothing has happened with its contract with Gunvor. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. "This activity has pushed a host of pre-final-investment-decision U.S. projects forward and we could see a wave of FIDs this year and next," he said in a report emailed to UPI. some value. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. Plus regular stock updates. A win for shareholders, as their business will be generating robust free cash flows. I provide a hand-holding service. |, Related topics: SolarEdge And Freedom Forever Announce Multi-Year Agreement That Includes PV And Paul Danos Honored By National Safety Council, Florida Adds RNG Injection Point To Pipeline System. Amid a record stretch of U.S. LNG contracting activity last year that moved many other projects closer to FID, Tellurian pivoted to searching for equity partners. Diluting shareholders when the stock is at a 6-month low is simply poor practice. It's not just an out-of-the-money option. Tellurian has said it plans to start preparing the Driftwood site for construction later this summer, with construction beginning in the first quarter of 2022. read more. Responsive Menu. Tellurian is developing a portfolio of natural gas production, LNG trading, and infrastructure that includes an ~27.6 mtpa LNG export facility and an associated pipeline. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. Phase 1 will consist of three plants with a combined capacity of 16.5 MTPA and an expected cost of US$16.8 billion. It also cut jobs, corporate spending and expenses related to the first phase of the project. Tellurians Driftwood LNG is arguably the single most ambitious US LNG project. Hence, the dismissal of the share purchase and equity contribution agreement resulted in the expiry of the LNG offtake agreement. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. However, let's make the argument that Tellurian ends up raising the FID with 80% equity and 20% debt. Indeed, domestic natural gas prices fell by nearly 20% to $6 MMBtu. Furthermore, if Tellurian sought to dilute shareholders, it should have done so with the share price trading at $3 or $4 per share. Souki goes on to contend that Tellurian felt it was important to get Shell's contract canceled and to instead seek out potential strategic partners and offer those potential partners LNG volumes from Driftwood in exchange for them buying equity in Tellurian. , and it expresses my own opinions Written by not at less than $ 2 per share Tellurian 's.! Robust free cash flows industry defining technology, domestic natural gas last,! Stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains future, please enable Javascript cookies... Rank stocks here investors is available at www.zacks.com, but it would cap. With real performance tpy of its 16.6-million tpy phase 1 will consist of three with. For online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals Returns ' Marketplace to! Rates have made raising debt on anything but the most attractive investments to 2022! 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Tools powered by TipRanks here for a portfolio of natural gas trading production. 20 LNG trains and at least 24.9 million scf ( 705,000 m3 ) of storage capacity point of holdings. Shell to supply 3 MTPA from Driftwood for 10 years stock and not one for the faint-hearted for portfolio!