Astrology is reliable. Newsweek, Sample answer. Suppose I say to you, If he is from Chicago, then he is from Illinoisand he is indeed from Illinois, so he must be from Chicago. You cant be absolutely sure without some wider context, but it normally wouldnt make sense for me to explain someones residency in Illinois by pointing to his residence in Chicago. B. For example, an unnoticed erotic image on a Ritz cracker, Key says, makes the Ritz cracker taste even better, because all of the senses are interconnected in the brain. The problem with his argument is that another explanation for these unnoticed images already exists; we all know that were capable of finding images if we look really hard for them, simply as the products of our imagination. e. instrumental-reactive aggression theory, According to more recent research by Anderson and Bushman, aggression ranging from instrumental to reactive should be viewed For instance, of 15 Donner Party members who attempted to snowshoe out in late December, all five women survived while eight of the ten men died. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? 1. 2. William James was the ________. Until then, the argument is no better than a product of Keys own imagination. . In a research study, describes a manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly. a. immature For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. Senator Claiborne Pell (D-RI), wrote an alarmed letter to the secretary of defense; he had discovered the word simone (pronounced si-MO-nee) in the secretarys taped speeches, as well as in the speeches of the secretary of state and of the presidentwhen the speeches were played backwards. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. They were all concerned with describing and understanding the inner experience. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. It must establish an alternative explanation for a phenomenon. What is meant by the phrase "hierarchical organization of life"? Which of the following refers to a broad explanation or group of explanations for some aspect of the natural world that is consistently supported by evidence over time? The achievement is all the more remarkable when you consider that the mysterious sculptors created their masterpiece millennia before the existence of their subject. Look for deception as an alternative explanation. To illustrate this bias, suppose I tell you that I have in mind a set of numbers that includes the numbers 2, 4, and 6, and I then ask you to guess what set of numbers I am thinking of. The logic of the gods argument would benefit if its observable outcome ruled out the luck alternativeif, for example, the outcome were revised, as Bacon hints, to this: Nobody who worships the gods has drowned in a shipwreck. Believe. In the late 1950s, a doctor reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association that stomach ulcers could be effectively treated by having a patient swallow a balloon connected to some tubes that circulated a refrigerated fluid. Competition for food among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes. Dr. Sarkeesian observes and records how watching cartoons influences heart rates. There are, however, several useful strategies that we will discuss next. How often do people leave water spraying everywhere rather than simply turning it off? This interlocks with the test, under the preceding improbable-outcome criterion, of asking whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. It assigned a central role to gravity, which is, in effect, action at a distance; but it did not offer any account of how gravitational forces can act across space without any intervening physical bodies. Some historians mark this as the day of the final triumph of the Newtonian over the Cartesian theoretical tradition. Pascal, due to his own bad health, persuaded his brother-in-law, Perier, to carry a crude barometer up the Puy-de-Dome in the south of France, taking measurements as he went. For singular explanations, ask whether this sort of explanation is known to occur and, if so, if it occurs more frequently than do the leading alternative explanations. In some explanatory arguments, the explanatory theory is first invented, then the observable outcome is predicted and looked for. Any performance significantly better or worse than the students current mean level of competence would be largely a matter of chance. d. all of the above Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. So the outcome probably would be true even if the gods explanation were false, and the argument is logically extremely weak. Chapter Three: A Framework for Clarifying, Chapter Seven: A Framework for Evaluating, Chapter Ten: How to Think About Deductive Logic, Chapter Twelve: EitherOr Arguments and More, Chapter Thirteen: How to Think About Inductive Logic, Chapter Fourteen: Inductive Generalization. e. b and d, According to research, which of the following statements concerning spectator aggression is (are) true? A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. Echinacea has no effect on the duration and severity of the symptoms of the common cold. Suppose Halley had decided to look for confirmation of Newtons celestial mechanics by studying the sun rather than comets and, based on Newton, had confidently predicted that the sun would rise the next day. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. But explanatory arguments that rely heavily on mystery or that depend on the overthrow of science cannot be considered successful until they do the hard work of filling in the blanks. We do know, however, that deception of this sort happensthat there are entertainers who work very hard at producing illusions like this, and they can make a lot of honest money at it. There are a few money managers who succeed on the basis of skillmultibillionaire Warren Buffet is the most famous example. Dear Pete: Sorry, no help from this corner for a plumber who cant keep track of his pipes. Just as a good explanatory argument rules out coincidence, it also rules out deception. The girls explored the area on ____ bicycles. a person's unconscious. She claims she has never seen that pipe before and doesnt know how it got there. Each of these passages discusses an explanation that might be thought to be unfalsifiable. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles ], There are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions, What prehistoric culture created the huge and magnificent likeness of George Bernard Shaw that is topographically sculpted on the southern tip of an island in the Leaf River in northern Quebec? Then NASAs Donald Bogard compared the meteorites fingerprint of noble gases to those found on Mars by the Viking landerand discovered that they matched closely. is true. a. physically harming another individual The train of reasoning ran, Here is a gentleman of a medical type, but with the air of a military man. Then-clause is said to be unlikely without if-clause. Simplicity can be a significant contributor to the probability of an explanation. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? He argued that, by super-cooling the stomach, acid production was reduced and the ulcer relieved. a. as a circle Aggression is detrimental to performance. correlated, but not causal. In other words, it means that you cannot use all of the relevant available evidence in making this particular judgmentyou must exclude the assumption that the explanation is true, and you must exclude observations that might have already been made in the attempt to verify premise 2. The problem in all of these cases is that the explanation does no work. b. athletes view aggressive acts as more appropriate in society than in the sport environment Nearly half the party died before an April rescue, the survivors cannibalizing the dead. Webe. But the extremely high prior probability of the outcome renders the argument logically useless. But this explanation has an exceedingly low prior probability. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? Prepare a cost of production report, using the average cost method. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. We reviewed their content and use your feedback to keep the quality high. c. reactive versus hostile A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. To be useful in the scientific method, an observation must be: Despite all the intellectual analyses the scientific method gives rise to and objective conclusions it makes possible, it CANNOT. Its like coming back from the dead. . b. personal beliefs and attitudes a. D. It excludes the presumption of Your first thought would probably be that this supports the explanation that we are sometimes able to see into the future via our dreams. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. Clearly in Afghanistan. Arthur Conan Doyle, There has recently been a startling decline in a large number of amphibian populations, apparently because UV radiation is harmful to them. Well, Abby, this should clear up the mystery of MY missing pipe. At the end of the summer term, the teachers at a New England school were informed that certain children had been identified as spurters who could be expected to do well over the coming months. Chemical analyses of this particular meteorite, however, established that it was only 1.3 billion years old and made of cooled lava. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. The line on the chart, I argue, does pass through the six plotted points but otherwise zigzags wildly, say, as follows. He had a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. First part: The prior probability of the prediction is extremely lowhelped especially by the inclusion of predictions (i.e., no relevant difference in food from island to island) that succeed in falsifying alternative hypotheses (i.e., that the difference is because of difference in food). Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. It must generate testable predictions. e. Follow up. One morning she wakes up after a late night reading and finds her vision is somewhat blurred; she immediately diagnoses optic neuritis. , Why is Tylenol the pain reliever hospitals use most? The ads imply that its better than other brands. Explanation: Simone is a code word. Formulate a hypothesis. correlated, but not causal. e. modeling, c. an interaction of situations and personal beliefs, The general aggression model proposes that when aggression occurs, it will be Specialists found the cause by taking motion pictures of the patients vocal cords during an attack and during a normal period. Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. So the arguments logic must be considered weak. They want to show how tough they are. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. Which of the following statements is NOT one of their recommendations? The husband said he put the pipe somewhere, and the plumber had no way of knowing where; how often is someone going to be able to sneak in and find something like that without being caught? Another contemporary of his, French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal, suspected that Torricelli was right but that a greater altitude was required to prove it. This result can be explained by the fact that because the teachers expected them to do well, their perceptions of each students ability rose and those childrens own self-image was enhanced. David Lewis and James Greene, Thinking Better. A statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. Reprinted with permission. When I went back to that house, the door was open and I could hear a loud argument coming from another room, so I sneaked in and quietly retrieved my pipe. It includes the presumption of causation. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. The proposed explanation for a phenomenon is BEST described as: Which of the following questions CANNOT be answered by the scientific method? Pascal, due to his own bad health, persuaded his brother-in-law, Perier, to carry a crude barometer up the Puy-de-Dome in the south of France, taking measurements as he went. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. Just watchas my horoscope says, something will disappoint me today. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. One good way to check for simplicitya way typically more useful with singular than with general explanationsis to ask whether the explanation offers only as many explanatory entities as needed. Both a body of knowledge and an intellectual activity encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. Living organisms are able to respond to stimulisuch as light, moisture, or another organism. The Total Evidence Condition for Explanatory Arguments. An observable outcome for which there are fewer possible explanations is that much more improbableand, thus, is that much logically stronger. A(n) ________ is a chamber that isolates the subject from the external environment. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect a. Clearly, smoking causes cancer. Sample answer. When you cannot think of another explanation, it can be tempting to accept an explanatory argument even when the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. But the editors at. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. Is the if-clause offered as superior to alternative explanations of the then-clause? Which of the following is NOT one of the four most prominent theories of aggression? Abbys explanation is that the wife is having an affair; the observable outcome is that the pipe unexpectedly appears and then mysteriously disappears. The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. Here is an example from Arthur Conan Doyles A Study in Scarlet; Dr. Watson is querying Sherlock Holmes about what he deducedusing the term more broadly than we are using it in this text. All of the above are reasons for stating a null hypothesis. But the second letter, using the same observable outcome, offers an alternative explanationnamely, that a plumber visited, left the pipe, then surreptitiously retrieved it. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. It can also be helpful to know that when explanatory arguments occur in ordinary language, the ifthen premise is more often than not implicit (which tends not to be the case with the fallacy of affirming the consequent). Higher expectations by teachers and by themselves causes students to perform better. There was no control group with which to compare his patients who received the treatment. The explanations prior probabilitythat is, its probability prior to judging whether the observable outcome is truemust not be implausibly low and it must be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. So the scientists are wrong when they reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine! d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. S2 Biology; Chapter 6-the tour of the cell, Chapter 10: The Origins and Diversification o, CoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900pounds, Elliot Aronson, Robin M. Akert, Timothy D. Wilson. Clearly an army doctor, then. . Please give like. Like their close cousins, inductive generalizations, explanatory arguments aim to expand our knowledge. Gilbert Harman is associated with the phrase. The researchers also monitored a drought that killed off 85 percent of the finches on an island one year. hypothesis? Note: See Section 6. It was a remarkably precise predictionpreposterous, really, given the rarity of comets, unless one made the assumption of Newtons celestial mechanics. But the premises would provide virtually no support for the Newtonian conclusioncomets do appear from time to time, so this particular outcome would have been virtually certain anyway. Abbys argument remains moderately strong. The victims and their families realize there is a hex; it becomes difficult to live a normal life, and the stress exacerbates any bodily problems. This can be a useful standard, but remember that surprise is a psychological conditionthus, strictly speaking, it is an indicator of low subjective, rather than epistemic, probability. But the first one, Torricellis, has a higher prior probability because it is simpler, due to its prediction of a smoother curve. But in an Oregon State University study that was replicated several times, wild frog eggs were placed in 72 cages, some with filters that let all sunlight inside except UV radiation. The probability of the explanation is not implausibly low. Perier stopped and measured the barometer from time to time as he scaled the mountain, with results that were widely taken as impressive proof of Torricellis hypothesis. Which of the following are characteristics of reliable empirical data? b. violence is modeled by young amateur hockey players Here is one of the classic exchanges:[4], Dear Abby: Im a traveling man whos on the road five days a week. Explanatory Impotence Explanatory impotence is the opposite of explanatory power. Writing Personal Pronouns That Agree with Antecedents. c. Use officials who do not tolerate aggression of any kind on the field. Which of the following would be the most reasonable testable prediction for the hypothesis: "All birds can fly"? C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. d. all of the above So far as anyone at the end of the 17th century had been able to tell, the motion of comets was utterly irregular. Psychology is a social science discipline. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but will not provide conclusive results. You should be a bit more suspicious of explanatory arguments in which the observable outcome preceded the explanationbut for psychological, not logical, reasons. Singular explanationsthat the butler did it, or that the man was a Marine sergeantare designed to apply to a very specific thing or eventto this particular murder or to that particular mans physical characteristics. 3) Sensitivity and responsiveness to the external environment. observation - question - hypotheses - predictions - results of investigation - conclusions Which are true of a hypothesis? Another is to ask whether it predicts the smoothest curve. a person's unconscious. It is easy to invent a convenient explanation for data you already have, but then to disregard failure to fully satisfy the total evidence condition. Personal Finance Semester 1 Test - Mrs. Ellio, John Lund, Paul S. Vickery, P. Scott Corbett, Todd Pfannestiel, Volker Janssen, The Language of Composition: Reading, Writing, Rhetoric, Lawrence Scanlon, Renee H. Shea, Robin Dissin Aufses, Eric Hinderaker, James A. Henretta, Rebecca Edwards, Robert O. Self. [1001]. Explanationa statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. If an explanation does already exist, then the outcome has a high prior probability and the argument is logically weak. But when, having slept in the car, your friend says, This water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level, this is offered as a reason to believe that we are well above sea level. Hierarchical organization. Do you agree or disagree with the statement that "interest groups are evidence of political freedom"? Further, it is not necessary for the prior probability of the explanation to be high; if the explanation were already highly probable, there would be no need for the argument! Explanation: Astrology is reliable. The irrational belief that actions not related by logic to a course of events can influence an outcome. Favor outcomes that would falsify alternative explanations. c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes Randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better. WebA hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. Lack suggested that a finch species alone on an island evolved an intermediate beak for eating seeds of various sizes. C. It's correlated, but not causal. Organisms can perform many reactions and activities, by acquiring, using, and transforming energy. What distinction (if any) is there between a scientific theory and a conceptual one that might lead you to disagree with this argument? C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. Then, recalling our discussion of evaluating the truth of bothand sentences in Chapter 10, the prior probability that it was both of them can be roughly understood as .10 times .10, or .01. Which of the following psychologists was a behaviorist? ________ is a perspective within psychology that emphasizes the potential for good that is innate to all humans, proposing a hierarchy of human needs in motivating behavior. The other roots the power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions. B. Unfortunately, there is no formula for calculating the prior probability of the observable outcome. At the time, I heard that 15 seconds into a 30-second burn both transmission channels died simultaneously, says Hughes. her own conscious experience. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that The point is that, other things being equal, simple explanations, like frequently occurring and nonmysterious explanations, have a higher prior probability. Vague outcomes are likely to have a high prior probability and thus are likely to signal that the argument is logically weak. For the Greek might count anything as grave misfortune, from a financial reversal to the death of an aged parent. Dont worry about whether the outcome has much likelihood of being true (since that has to do with the truth of premise 2, not with the logic of the argument). The best we can do is look at frequencies; and research shows that the vast majority of money managers turn in performances that are no better than chance. One test is to ask whether it offers only as many explanatory entities as needed. As the decades passed it was not forgotten, and the comet appeared on Christmas Day, 1758. To illustrate how this strategy is related to the prior epistemic probability of the outcome, suppose I propose the following fanciful explanation: I am bewitched, so that gravity has no affect on me whatsoever; the only reason I am able to walk around on the ground is because of magical shoes that counteract the bewitchment when I wear them.